Whilst more congestion on the roads could mean 17% longer journey times for motorists!

 

A new study carried out for the Department for Transport (DfT) claims that traffic levels in the UK could increase by up to 50% by the year 2050, with population growth to blame for the rise.

The data published by the DfT also suggests that more congested roads could mean 17% longer journey times for motorists!

However, pollution is expected to drop by 80% over the next 30 years, as more EVs and super efficient vehicles will be on UK roads by this time.

What the DfT study does admit to is that long term forecasts are ‘complex’ and the results come with ‘significant uncertainty’.

Whilst more congestion on the roads could mean 17% longer journey times for motorists!

New study claims traffic levels in the UK could increase by up to 50% by the year 2050. © Copyright Philip Halling and licensed for reuse under this Creative Commons Licence.

 

The forecast is to be used by the UK Government to ‘inform the Department for Transport’s road strategy’ but will not be used to impact any decision surrounding individual local roads, which may require further concentrated investigation.

Drivers in the UK as a result of the forecast are expected to spend more time sat in queues, as the study predicts that the vast majority of traffic in congested areas will increase by between 8 and 16%.

The time taken to complete a journey is also expected to suffer, with the average speed dropping from 34mph back in 2015 to as low as 31mph in the future.

In 2015, an average journey took 17 minutes, however this is expected to jump by 3 minutes to 20 minutes by 2050.

The conclusion to the DfT report stated: ‘Understanding future demand for road travel is essential to shape the policies we implement and the investments we make.

‘However, forecasting future demand is complex and there is significant uncertainty about the extent to which existing trends and relationships will carry on into the future.’

The report also concluded by saying: ‘We will continue to develop our understanding of the uncertainty surrounding the key drivers of demand, the relationship between the drivers and the capability of our models to represent this.

‘And therefore we will review and develop the scenarios used in our strategic forecasts as updated evidence emerges.’

 

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